The results of yesterday’s by elections in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire have seen a dramatic swing to Labour, something Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has hailed as a “game changer”. Labour outperformed expectations, as both seats should have stayed with the Conservatives according to current polling models, though local factors may have affected the results, as they did in the recent Uxbridge by election.

Regardless, this is yet another huge blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has lost seven of eight by elections during his short time in office; made worse by these two constituencies being some of the safest Tory seats in the country.

Tamworth

The Tamworth by election was triggered after its incumbent, Chris Pincher resigned whilst under investigation for groping allegations. Tamworth had been in the hands of the Conservatives since 2010, when Pincher won it from Labour who had held the seat since its creation in 1997. Since 2010, the seat has become progressively more conservative, with 66% voting for Leave in the 2016 referendum, and 66.3% voting Tory in 2019.

However that large majority has been overturned by a 23.85% swing from Conservative to Labour, the second-largest post war swing between the two parties, and slightly more than the swing in Selby and Ainsty earlier this year. There was a significant amount of strategic voting among left-leaning parties; the Green and Lib Dem vote share collapsing, likely to the benefit of Labour. Meanwhile, the right wing vote fractured; Reform UK managed to retain its deposit by winning more than 5% of the vote, and the ultranationalist group, Britain First, received its best ever election result with 2.3% of the vote.

The Chris Pincher allegations certainly frustrated the Conservative’s efforts in the constituency, as well as their poor choice of candidate in Andrew Cooper. Cooper had been embroiled in a scandal days before polling day, when it was revealed he had shared a post using offensive language towards parents who couldn’t afford to feed their children. Following the announcement of his defeat, Cooper was also seen rushing off stage towards the fire exit whilst the victor Sarah Edwards gave a speech.

Mid Bedfordshire

Whilst Tamworth was certainly an impressive victory for Labour, the result in Mid Bedfordshire was far more unexpected, as Labour took the seat for the first time in history. The by election was prompted by the resignation of former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, a Johnson ally who, in her resignation letter, accused Sunak of “abandoning Conservative values”.

Labour received a hefty 20.5% swing from the Conservatives, a shift slightly muted by the insurgent Lib Dems, who almost doubled their vote share from 2019. This is quite a different story than Tamworth where their vote shrunk, though it’s not unexpected as the Lib Dems often do well in these more rural, southern constituencies.

Reactions to the results

Keir Starmer and the Labour leadership have been jubilant over the results, with Starmer himself stating that, “These are phenomenal results that show Labour is back in the service of working people and redrawing the political map.”

The government on the other hand has been downplaying the results. Education Secretary Gillian Keegan has argued that the defeats were not a result of a “swing to Labour”, but rather Conservative voters staying at home. This is potentially true, as turnout was at just 44% (which is to be expected for a by election), but since the results being so in line with national polling, it is more likely that there are a significant number of voters who have, or will switch to Labour at the upcoming election.

Either way, this doesn’t bode well for the Tories; former Chancellor and host of the Political Currency podcast, George Osborne, says that yesterday’s losses suggest “armageddon” for the Conservatives.

The image used in this article is by the Number 10 Downing Street, and licensed under the CC BY-SA 2.0 DEED. The graphs used were creating with Flourish Studio.